To follow on about predictions of stamp prices, think about this situation.

As a dealer, suppose I pick up 100 MNH copies of Scott #C18, the Baby Zeppelin. I know that I can’t move that many at once under normal conditions. In my spring 2015 pricelist, I predict that the Baby Zeppelin is going to go up in value and the time to buy is now if you can find it for $50 or less. I planted the seeds of potential profit in your mind.

Amazingly, I come along in the summer 2015 pricelist and I have the Baby Zeppelin listed for $50. I created the demand in my spring pricelist and now I’m reaping the profits and I sell all of my 100 copies of the Baby Zeppelin to customers who think it’s going to increase in value.

Is that illegal? I don’t think so. Is it ethical? No. Because it was my prediction and not a guarantee, I can’t be held liable, especially if I add a disclaimer to my prediction. Oh well, my prediction was wrong. At worst, I look like an idiot. However, I sold my Baby Zeppelins which is what I really wanted to do. I had a secret financial stake in making my prediction about the price of Baby Zeppelins. People fell for my prediction.

I have no clue if the Baby Zeppelin is going to go up in value or not. My motive, as a dealer, is to quickly move those 100 MNH copies that I just bought. I want my money back and I want to turn a profit. That is the bottom line.

I’m not afraid to use myself in this example because in all of my years as a dealer, I’ve never touted any particular stamps as a good buy with investment potential. In fact, I’ve done the opposite. I’ve encouraged people to collect for fun and your profit is the enjoyment that you get out of the hobby.

The lesson for you going forward is to understand what motive, if any, does the predictor have in making their prediction? If the predictor has a financial stake in the matter, my suggestion to you is to tread carefully. Sometimes these predictions are self-serving. They don’t have your best interests in mind.